Analysis of Retail Giants Abercrombie & Fitch, Lululemon, and Macy's Sales Projections for Q4 2023
8 months ago

Prominent apparel retailers Abercrombie & Fitch and Lululemon Athletica have reported optimistic forecasts for their fourth-quarter sales, indicating strong holiday performance, while Macy's has indicated a potential shortfall in sales compared to its expectations. Abercrombie & Fitch has notably raised its projected fourth-quarter net sales growth range to between 7% and 8%, adjusting from a previous outlook of 5% to 7%.

This upward revision reflects impressive sales growth from the previous year, where the brand experienced a remarkable 21% increase, culminating in $1.45 billion in sales. Analysts scrutinized by FactSet are predicting that Abercrombie's sales could hit approximately $1.56 billion this fiscal quarter, showcasing robust consumer demand.

Throughout 2023, Abercrombie anticipates a full-year sales growth of around 15%, an improvement from an earlier range of 14% to 15%. In terms of projected revenue, analysts are estimating figures around $4.93 billion, surpassing the $4.28 billion reported for the 12 months that concluded on February 3, 2024. Fran Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer, highlighted the company's successful performance, stating, "Through fiscal December, we delivered record quarter-to-date net sales, exceeding the expectations we provided in November.

Total net sales growth was supported by comparable sales across regions and brands through the holiday selling period." Holding steady, Abercrombie & Fitch aims for operational margins of roughly 16% in the fourth quarter and approximately 15% for the full year. However, despite the positive growth forecast, the company's shares plummeted by 20% in Monday's trading session. Meanwhile, Lululemon has also expressed expectations for fourth-quarter sales within the range of $3.56 billion and $3.58 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate between 11% and 12%.

This projection is an improvement over its prior estimate of $3.48 billion to $3.51 billion and suggests an optimistic outlook against the FactSet consensus of $3.48 billion. Notably, Lululemon has adjusted its earnings-per-share target for the quarter to fall between $5.81 and $5.85, up from a previous forecast of $5.56 to $5.64. Meghan Frank, Chief Financial Officer, remarked, "During the holiday season, our guests responded well to our product offering, enabling us to increase our fourth-quarter guidance." In contrast, shares of Macy's experienced a decline of 5.6% after the department store chain reported roughly flat comparable sales for the quarter to date.

Macy's forecast for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue hints at figures being at or just below the lower end of its prior range of $7.8 billion to $8 billion. Analysts surveyed are estimating sales of $7.83 billion, underscoring the challenges faced by the department store. Macy's has maintained its adjusted EPS guidance, set between $1.40 and $1.65, slightly under the consensus estimate of $1.57, indicating potential hurdles in meeting earnings expectations amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Additionally, shares of Macy's are priced at 131.08, with a notable change of -29.84, representing an -18.54% change..

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