US Stocks Rally as Inflation Data Eases Shutdown Fears
1 week ago

The US equity markets experienced a notable recovery after a steep decline prior to the market opening, driven by favorable inflation figures that alleviated worries of an impending partial government shutdown. The S&P 500 surged by 1.7% to reach 5,967.8, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.8% to 19,707.4, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose by 1.8% landing at 43,094.9.

All sectors experienced gains during intraday trading, with real estate, healthcare, and financials leading the pack. Prior to the market's regular trading hours, stocks were in a downturn, with the Dow and Nasdaq each dropping over 250 points and the S&P 500 down by 50 points. While concerns linger about the potential for a partial shutdown of the US government, the inflation data, favored by the Federal Reserve, released on Friday provided some comfort, revealing a slowdown in month-over-month price growth.

The CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the fear gauge, dropped by 24% post-lunch as a reaction to the news. A bill proposed by House Republicans aimed at suspending the debt ceiling for two years and funding the government for three months did not pass late Thursday, indicating that without an agreement by Friday, a partial shutdown could commence today as stated in a research note from D.A.

Davidson. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who previously negotiated the bipartisan deal that was rejected by President-Elect Trump, mentioned to reporters that he has a strategy and anticipates another vote soon, as reported by CNN. Turning to economic indicators, the headline PCE price index saw a modest increase of 0.1% in November, a slight decrease from the 0.2% rise observed in October.

On a yearly basis, inflation edged up to 2.4% from 2.3%. Analysts on Wall Street had anticipated a sequential increase of 0.2% and an annualized rate of 2.5%. The Fed's core measure, excluding food and energy costs, remained unchanged at an annualized rate of 2.8%, but showed a decline from 0.3% to 0.1% on a sequential basis.

Predictions for these metrics had been set at 2.9% and 0.2% growth, respectively. As for Treasury yields, the day saw mixed results, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 4.8 basis points to rest at 4.52%. In corporate updates, Nike reported a dip in fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue. Truist Securities highlighted that CEO Elliot Hill's rapid turnaround initiatives exerted pressure on the outlook for the second half of fiscal 2025.

FedEx, on the other hand, announced that its fiscal second-quarter earnings exceeded analyst expectations, although its revenue fell short of forecasts. The parcel delivery service revealed plans to separate its freight operations into a publicly listed company. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures declined by 0.7% to $68.91 a barrel..

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Economic Calendar

Manufacturing PMI
2024-12-30 01:30:00
Actual
49.6
Forecast
49.5
Previous
49.0 R (49.5)

The Nomura/JMMA Japan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is compiled by Markit Economics in association with Nomura (www.

Consumer Confidence
2024-12-30 07:00:00
Actual
-8.6
Forecast
Previous
-7.4

The Consumer Barometer includes questions about certain economic matters.

Nationwide House Prices y/y
2024-12-30 08:00:00
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Forecast
Previous
3.7%

Nationwide House Prices measure a change in value caused by inflation using a statistical method to construct an 'average house'.

Nationwide House Prices m/m
2024-12-30 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.2%

Nationwide House Prices measure a change in value caused by inflation using a statistical method to construct an 'average house'.

KOF Leading Indicator
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
99.5
Forecast
101.1
Previous
102.9 R (101.8)

KOF (Konjunkturforschungsstelle) Leading Indicator (KOF economic barometer) is based on a multi-sectoral design with three modules: The Core GDP module (GDP excluding construction and banking), the Construction module, and the Banking module.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
2.8%
Forecast
2.6%
Previous
2.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
0.4%
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.2%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
0.4%
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.0%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
2.8%
Forecast
2.6%
Previous
2.4%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Chicago PMI (ISM-Chicago Business Survey)
2024-12-30 15:45:00
Actual
36.9
Forecast
42.7
Previous
40.2

The ISM-Chicago Business Survey is a proven monthly ‘first look' at business, government and NGO economic activity in the USA.

Pending Home Sales m/m
2024-12-30 16:00:00
Actual
2.2%
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
1.8% R (2.0%)

National Association of Realtor's (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is released during the first week of each month.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
2024-12-30 16:30:00
Actual
3.4
Forecast
Previous
-2.7

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey among executives, who report on how business conditions have changed for a number of indicators, such as production, new orders, employment, prices and company outlook.

Bank Holiday
2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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Private Sector Credit m/m
2024-12-31 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.5%

This indicator measures the change in the total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries.

Manufacturing PMI
2024-12-31 02:30:00
Actual
Forecast
50.3
Previous
50.3

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early indication of the economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector on a monthly basis.

Non-Manufacturing PMI
2024-12-31 02:30:00
Actual
Forecast
50.2
Previous
50.0

In China, the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index survey is based on data collected from a representative panel of 1,200 enterprises from the non-manufacturing sector.

Bank Holiday
2024-12-31 11:30:00
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2024-12-31 11:45:00
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2024-12-31 13:00:00
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2024-12-31 13:05:00
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Bank Holiday
2024-12-31 13:10:00
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Redbook Retail Sales
2024-12-31 14:55:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
5.9%

The LJR Redbook survey tracks 15 retail stores every week to determine the changes in sales.

House Price Index m/m
2024-12-31 15:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.5%
Previous
0.7%

The HPI is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices.

Bank Holiday
2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index y/y
2024-12-31 15:00:00
Actual
Forecast
4.1%
Previous
4.6%

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States.

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