Following a significant 50 basis point interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve last Wednesday, market sentiment has transitioned to a bullish outlook. In the wake of this shift, Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $63,000, while a notable increase in demand for altcoins became evident. This period highlighted the growth of meme coins and specific layer-1 tokens, particularly Sui ($SUI) and NEAR ($NEAR), both of which received substantial attention.
Sui ($SUI) has demonstrated remarkable performance among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Starting its upward trajectory on September 2 at $0.74, SUI achieved a peak of $1.76 by September 24, reflecting an impressive 137% increase in just three weeks. A significant factor in this surge was the recent introduction of the Grayscale Sui Trust, accessible to accredited investors.
Concurrently, Bittensor ($TAO) experienced a robust 66.1% increase over the past week, with trading volumes on Convert soaring by over 200%. Following the launch of the Grayscale Sui Trust in August, Grayscale also introduced the Grayscale Bittensor Trust, focusing on investments in Bittensor ($TAO).
The price of TAO commenced its ascent on September 6 at $228, climbing to a recent high of $590 on September 24, culminating in a remarkable 160% gain within three weeks. Another layer-1 token, NEAR ($NEAR), has similarly witnessed robust demand in recent weeks, mirroring trends set by its competitor Sui.
Grayscale launched the Grayscale NEAR Trust about a month before the Grayscale Sui Trust. While the simultaneous rallies of these three tokens might be coincidental, it is advisable to keep a close watch on their performance for potential patterns. Overall Market Analysis: The accompanying chart illustrates the BTC price movement in an 8-hour timeframe.
As previously highlighted, market sentiment notably shifted toward a bullish outlook after the Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to implement a 50 basis point rate cut last Wednesday. This development marks the beginning of a rate-cut cycle, generally interpreted as a positive signal for global liquidity.
Typically, such an environment encourages investors to embrace more risk, resulting in heightened risk appetite across various asset classes. In our assessment of Bitcoin (BTC), we identified critical resistance levels at $63,000 and $65,000 while BTC traded near $61,000. These levels are clearly illustrated by the red bars in the accompanying chart.
Conversely, the $50,000 to $52,000 range has emerged as a robust support zone, with $57,000 serving as a local support level, as represented by the green bars. Presently, the $63,000 level is functioning as a support for BTC, while the $65,000 level remains a pivotal resistance point. Over the past week, the price of BTC has fluctuated within this relatively narrow range, suggesting a phase of consolidation.
However, concern arises from a noticeable decline in upward market momentum over the past 48 hours, coupled with a distinct decrease in spot market volume. This trend might indicate diminishing demand for BTC, while supply around the $65,000 mark remains substantial. Such dynamics could catalyze increased selling pressure should this trend persist. Looking ahead, if a significant bullish candle emerges for BTC that efficiently breaks through the $65,000 resistance level, accompanied by considerable trading volume, it would strongly suggest that bullish sentiment is prevailing in the market.
This breakout could pave the way for a swift move toward our next target of $67,000. Should the price manage to surpass the $67,000 resistance, we anticipate a vigorous rally signaling the conclusion of a six-month consolidation phase, setting the stage for further upward momentum in the cryptocurrency sector.
While the current market environment offers both opportunities and challenges, the key levels under observation will be crucial in determining the upcoming steps for BTC and the broader market. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared to respond to any significant price movements that may unfold in the near future. Options Market Overview: The above chart provides insights into the 25-delta skew on BTC options over the past two weeks.
The 25-delta skew serves as a valuable gauge for assessing market sentiment. By analyzing the differences in premiums between 25-delta calls and puts within the options market, this skew offers insights into the perspectives of market participants. A positive skew indicates that options traders favor paying higher premiums for calls compared to puts, reflecting a preference for potential upside gains, whereas a negative skew suggests a greater inclination toward downside protection.
The above chart indicates that the skew in front-end options displayed an upward trend toward zero after BTC price found support at the $57k level. The bullish 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed propelled the skew of the 7-day expired options above zero. However, the front-end skew has recently transitioned into a phase of sideways consolidation, remaining just below the zero threshold.
In contrast, the skews for intermediate to long-term options that persist above the zero mark have shown no significant directional changes. This trend suggests that options traders are adopting a cautious stance regarding the short-term outlook for BTC prices while maintaining a more optimistic perspective for the long term.
Following a drop in BTC prices below the $63,000 mark earlier today, all skews experienced a decline, notably with the skew for the 7-day expired options dipping below -2. In conjunction with our analysis of the BTC spot price, we anticipate that BTC will likely continue trading sideways beneath the $65,000 resistance level ahead of the US PCE Price Index data release this Friday.
The market may experience volatility in response to the PCE data as investors seek clues about the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decisions. Macro Snapshot: Last Thursday (24-09-19), the Australian Employment Change for August was reported at 47.5K, reflecting a decrease from the revised figure of 48.9K in July, initially reported as 58.2K.
This result exceeded the consensus estimate of 25.0K. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for August. During the Bank of England's meeting on September 19, the bank rate was maintained at 5%, aligning with economists' predictions. In August, the BoE had reduced the rate by 25 basis points following a decrease in the annual inflation rate below 2% in July.
Despite the recent 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, UK policymakers opted to retain current rates. In the United States, initial jobless claims dropped to 219,000 this week, down from 231,000 the prior week, indicating slight improvement in the job market. Last Friday (24-09-20), the Bank of Japan decided to keep its interest rate at 0.25%.
Governor Ueda stated that the bank will take its time to assess the implications of global economic uncertainties, indicating no immediate plans to increase borrowing costs. The UK experienced robust retail sales growth in August, exhibiting a monthly increase of 1.0% and an annual growth rate of 2.5%, surpassing forecasts of 0.3% and 1.4%, respectively.
Core retail sales also demonstrated solid performance, with a monthly rise of 1.1% and an annual growth rate of 2.3%, significantly higher than the predicted 0.5% and 1.1%. On Tuesday (24-09-24), the Reserve Bank of Australia held its interest rate steady at 4.35%. Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that interest rate cuts were unlikely in the near future, while softening the previously hawkish stance by stating that monetary tightening was not under discussion.
In the United States, consumer sentiment declined in September, as reflected by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which fell to 98.7 from 105.6 in August. On Wednesday (24-09-25), new home sales in the US reached 716,000 in August, exceeding the forecast of 699,000, though this represented a decrease from July's figure of 751,000. Convert Portal Volume Change: The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.
Following the 50 basis points reduction implemented by the Federal Reserve last Wednesday, our desk observed a notable surge in trading volume across various sectors. While Bitcoin fluctuated between $62,000 and $65,000, there was a marked increase in interest from investors and traders in altcoins.
In the Monitoring Zone, trading volume surged by 156.3%, with ARK ($ARK) and Beta Finance ($BETA) being the primary contributors to this remarkable growth. Simultaneously, the Solana Zone recorded a 139.6% rise in volume after the price of Solana ($SOL) climbed above $150. Strong demand for meme coins within the Solana network, particularly for Book of MEME ($BOME) and Dogwifhat ($WIF), was noted.
Moreover, the AI Zone experienced strong trading volume growth for two consecutive weeks, driven mainly by interest in Bittensor ($TAO) and Worldcoin ($WLD). Why Trade OTC? Binance offers clients multiple avenues for accessing OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform for manual price quotations.
It also provides automated price quotations through its Convert and Block Trade platform. For more information, clients can reach out via email at trading@binance.com. Lastly, the community can join our Telegram group to stay updated with the markets..