In September, China's exports experienced their slowest growth in five months, failing to meet estimates amid ongoing tariffs imposed by regions such as Europe and the United States. The country's exports rose by 2.4% year-on-year, totaling $303.7 billion, according to recently released data from the General Administration of Customs.
This growth rate fell short of the anticipated 6% expansion that market analysts, including those surveyed by Reuters, had predicted. Furthermore, this figure is notably lower than the robust 8.7% growth recorded in August. Imports also disappointed, registering a modest increase of 0.3% to reach $222 billion, thereby missing forecasts for a 0.9% rise.
This outcome points toward weak domestic demand within China, a concern that is further underscored by the decline from a previous month’s growth of 0.5%. The overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.7 billion from $91 billion in August, and did not meet market expectations, which had estimated a surplus of $89.8 billion. Lynn Song, chief economist at ING for Greater China, remarked on the potential implications of the reduced surplus, suggesting it may foreshadow lower gross domestic product growth in the third quarter.
The ongoing pressures on both the manufacturing and industrial sectors, exacerbated by new international tariffs, necessitate a strong response from fiscal policy to stabilize markets. "With this engine of growth stalling, other sectors of the economy, such as investment and consumption, will need to bolster efforts to fulfill this year’s growth objectives," stated Song.
"The adjustment process seems to be taking longer than many market participants anticipated; nevertheless, we still foresee robust fiscal stimulus measures aimed at facilitating growth stabilization and enhancing domestic demand.".