In October, China's exports demonstrated a promising increase of 12.7% compared to the previous year, suggesting a potential strengthening of the global economy or efforts by exporters to ship ahead of anticipated tariff hikes in the United States. During the same month, imports saw a decline of 2.3%, resulting in a trade surplus of $95.7 billion, as reported by the General Administration of Customs on Thursday.
The newly elected US President, Donald Trump, has pledged to enhance tariffs on products made in China. Concurrently, many European nations are reassessing their own tariffs, particularly concerning electric vehicles and specific high-tech goods. Despite facing challenges, experts from Capital Economics, including economist Zichun Huang, predict that China's export performance will remain robust through the first half of 2025.
"We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months—any drag from potential Trump tariffs may not materialize until the second half of next year," Huang explained. Huang further indicated that China's imports are also likely to see growth, fueled by an increasing level of macroeconomic stimulus from Beijing, which is anticipated to positively impact the national economy.
The export growth seen in October marked the largest year-on-year gain for China in two years. Over the first ten months of 2024, exports increased by 6.7% while imports rose by 3.2%, as per customs officials. During this period, ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner, comprising ten Southeast Asian nations.
In fact, 15.7% of China's total trade was conducted with ASEAN countries, where exports increased by 12.5% while imports grew by 3.8%. The European Union, being China's second-largest partner, also saw a 3.5% increase in exports during the initial ten months of 2024, alongside a 2.9% rise in imports.
Meanwhile, the United States positioned itself as China’s third-largest trading partner, with a 4.9% growth in exports and a 2.9% rise in imports for the same period. In October, reflecting the impacts of trade sanctions and the ongoing war in Ukraine, China's exports to Russia surged almost 27% year-on-year, signaling a notable shift in trade dynamics, as reported by the Associated Press..