Costco Wholesale Sustains Market Leadership with Promising Growth Projections: Insights from Morgan Stanley
4 months ago

Costco Wholesale, represented by the ticker $COST, is poised to reap significant benefits from ongoing market share expansion and enhanced warehouse productivity. According to insights released by Morgan Stanley on Monday, the retail giant is on track to achieve growth rates that exceed historical averages.

The brokerage has elevated its price target for Costco’s stock from $855 to $950, maintaining an overweight rating, which reflects their confidence in Costco's robust market position. Following this announcement, shares of Costco saw a close of 2.3% higher on Monday, indicating strong investor sentiment towards the stock. Morgan Stanley's research underscores that the foundational drivers of Costco’s growth are resilient and sustainable.

The firm's analysis suggests that both Costco's historical performance and its future potential in the retail sector indicate a favorable trajectory for the company. The brokerage emphasized that Costco is among the most compelling compounding growth narratives within the retail industry. It is expected that the company will demonstrate growth rates and expansion capabilities that surpass historical averages moving forward.

Importantly, this anticipated growth is characterized as not needing to be exceptionally rapid, suggesting a steady and reliable increase. The brokerage's projections include an average total comparable sales growth of 6.5% from 2024 to 2033. This projection encompasses comparable sales within the US, which are expected to range between 6% and 6.5%.

When compared to past performance, the total comparable sales from 2014 to 2023 averaged 6.6%, with an average of 5.5% when excluding the pandemic years—a testament to Costco’s resilience throughout various market conditions. Moreover, Morgan Stanley is estimating that total revenue growth at Costco will align with a robust 8% over the ten-year horizon, consistent with the company's pre-COVID growth averages.

The report highlights that retail sales per average warehouse are set to escalate significantly, projected to reach $365 million during the 2024 to 2033 period. This represents a marked increase from the $205 million observed from 2014 to 2023. The anticipated growth in total memberships is equally optimistic, with expectations set between 7% and 7.5%, contrasting with an average membership growth of 5.8% from 2014 to 2023.

Furthermore, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are also projected to see an average growth of 9% from 2024 to 2033, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% over the decade. As the market landscape evolves, Costco Wholesale remains a critical player, continuing to adapt and thrive in an increasingly competitive sector.

With its strategic focus on enhancing operational efficiencies and expanding its market share, the company is well-positioned for sustained success in the years ahead..

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2025-01-15 06:00:00
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6.9%

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0.0%

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1.6%

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2.6%
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2.6%

The CPI is the main UK measure of inflation for macroeconomic purposes and forms the basis for the Government's inflation target.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
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0.1%

The CPI is the main UK measure of inflation for macroeconomic purposes and forms the basis for the Government's inflation target.

Input Producer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
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-1.9%

Producer Price Index is a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers.

Input Producer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
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Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.0%

Producer Price Index is a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers.

Output Producer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
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0.1%
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0.3%

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2025-01-15 08:00:00
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-0.6%

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0.1%

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2025-01-15 08:00:00
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3.8%
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3.6%

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Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
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0.0%
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0.0%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

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2025-01-15 08:00:00
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0.8%
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0.8%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Wholesale Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
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0.1%
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0.0%

The index of selling prices in wholesale trade measures - on a representative basis - the development of prices of goods sold by wholesalers within Germany to the extent that such sales are included under wholesale, such as contracts concluded with resellers, processors or other bulk purchasers.

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2025-01-15 08:00:00
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-0.6%

The index of selling prices in wholesale trade measures - on a representative basis - the development of prices of goods sold by wholesalers within Germany to the extent that such sales are included under wholesale, such as contracts concluded with resellers, processors or other bulk purchasers.

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2025-01-15 08:45:00
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0.2%
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The Consumer Price Index is the official instrument for measuring inflation.

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2025-01-15 08:45:00
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1.3%
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1.3%

The Consumer Price Index is the official instrument for measuring inflation.

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2025-01-15 08:45:00
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1.8%
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1.8%

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2025-01-15 08:45:00
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0.2%
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0.2%

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 09:00:00
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0.4%
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
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2.8%
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2.4% R (2.8%)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
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0.4%
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0.0% R (0.4%)

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

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2025-01-15 09:00:00
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2.8%
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2.4% R (2.8%)

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

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2025-01-15 10:30:00
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3.5%
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3.4%

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2025-01-15 11:00:00
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-1.2%

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0.3%
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0.0%

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-3.7%

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0.3%

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2025-01-15 14:30:00
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3.3%
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3.3%

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0.20

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163.6%

This survey collects data on monthly retail sales (in dollars and in units) of new motor vehicles sold in Canada.

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-0.6%
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1.0%

This survey presents estimates of monthly sales levels for wholesale merchants in Canada, each province and territory.

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2025-01-15 16:00:00
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Crude Oil Inventories
2025-01-15 16:30:00
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414.6 M Barrels

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) provides timely information on supply and prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products in the context of historical data and forecasts.

Fed's Williams Speaks
2025-01-15 17:00:00
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2025-01-15 20:00:00
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Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year.

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2025-01-15 22:45:00
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-0.1%

The Food Price Index (FPI) measures the price change rate of a fixed basket of food goods and services purchased by households.

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2025-01-16 01:01:00
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28%
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25%

RICS House Price Balance.

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14.5
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35.6

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2025-01-16 01:30:00
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67.0%

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2025-01-16 01:30:00
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4.0%
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3.9%

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2025-01-16 08:00:00
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-0.7%

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2025-01-16 08:00:00
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0.5%
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-0.4%

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Industrial Production m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
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0.1%
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-0.6%

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Industrial Production y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
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Forecast
-1.0%
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-0.7%

The Industrial Production index measures the volume of production of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and energy supply industries, which covered 18.

Manufacturing Production y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
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Forecast
-0.3%
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0.0%

The Index of Manufacturing Production covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and these are aggregated to form the resulting monthly manufacturing output time series.

Manufacturing Production m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.2%
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-0.6%

The Index of Manufacturing Production covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and these are aggregated to form the resulting monthly manufacturing output time series.

Visible Trade Balance
2025-01-16 08:00:00
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-18.00 B GBP
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-18.97 B GBP

It represents the difference between imports and exports of goods.

Trade Balance Non EU
2025-01-16 08:00:00
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-7.28 B GBP

A gauge of Britain's trade with countries outside of Europe.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
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Forecast
2.6%
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2.2% R (2.6%)

The consumer price index for Germany measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes.

Final Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
-0.2% R (0.4%)

The consumer price index for Germany measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.8%
Previous
2.4% R (2.8%)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.7%
Previous
-0.7% R (0.7%)

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-16 10:00:00
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Forecast
1.3%
Previous
1.3%

The Consumer price index measures changes in prices over time of a sample of goods (or basket) assuming that the quantities purchased are constant over two consecutive periods.

Final Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-16 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
-0.1% R (0.1%)

The Consumer price index measures changes in prices over time of a sample of goods (or basket) assuming that the quantities purchased are constant over two consecutive periods.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-01-16 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
1.4%
Previous
1.5% R (1.4%)

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-01-16 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
-0.1% R (0.1%)

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Credit Conditions Survey
2025-01-16 10:30:00
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Forecast
Previous

Bank of England implements the survey of bank and non-bank lenders to maintain monetary stability and financial stability.

Trade Balance
2025-01-16 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
4.500 B EUR
Previous
5.153 B EUR

It measures the difference between imports and exports data in billions of EUR.

Trade Balance EU
2025-01-16 11:00:00
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Forecast
Previous
-0.66 B EUR

The headline figure, expressed in billions of EUR, is the value of exports to European Union countries minus the value of imports from those countries.

Trade Balance
2025-01-16 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
7.2 B EUR
Previous
6.8 B EUR

The External trade balance indicator is the difference between exports and imports of goods.

Housing Starts
2025-01-16 14:15:00
Actual
Forecast
256.0
Previous
262.4

The start of construction is defined in terms of the construction work as a whole and not particular housing units within it.

Import Price Index m/m
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-0.2%
Previous
0.1%

Import Price Index measures the change over time in the prices of goods or services purchased from abroad by U.

Import Price Index y/y
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.3%

Import Price Index measures the change over time in the prices of goods or services purchased from abroad by U.

Initial Jobless Claims
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
210 000
Previous
201 000

Initial Jobless Claims is a report issued by the U.

Philadelphia FED Index
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-7.0
Previous
-16.4

The Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District.

Retail Sales m/m
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.6%
Previous
0.7%

Sales include merchandise sold (for cash or credit at retail or wholesale) by establishments primarily engaged in retail trade.

Retail Sales less Autos m/m
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.2%

They represent change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

Business Inventories m/m
2025-01-16 16:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
0.1%

Index represents the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.

NAHB Housing Market Index
2025-01-16 16:00:00
Actual
Forecast
45
Previous
46

The Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) on current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months.

Natural Gas Storage
2025-01-16 16:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3373 BCF

This report tracks U.

Fed's Williams Speaks
2025-01-16 17:00:00
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Forecast
Previous

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