On November 1, the Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in its fight against inflation, but policymakers have shifted some focus to the maximum employment aspect of their dual mandate. Citigroup economist Veronica Clark stated in a recent report that the October nonfarm payroll data will be crucial in confirming or denying the strength seen in September's data.
However, it may not be sufficient to shift market attention back to the risk of a U.S. economic recession. The October data is expected to reflect the ongoing Boeing strike and the impact of hurricanes, with Clark estimating these factors will reduce employment numbers by 70,000 to 80,000. Citigroup's outlook on the nonfarm payroll data is more moderate than the consensus, predicting an increase of 90,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.23%.
Additionally, Citigroup noted that any downward revisions to the September data could be more significant than usual..