India's economic landscape is set to witness its fourth consecutive year of growth in the fiscal year 2024-2025, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO) of New Delhi. The latest projections indicate that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will expand at a real rate of 6.4% year-on-year, a moderation from the previous year's robust growth of 8.2%.
This decline in growth rates reflects a broader trend affecting various sectors of the economy. For the current fiscal year, the manufacturing sector is anticipated to experience a growth rate of 5.3% year-on-year, showing a slowdown from the impressive 9.9% recorded in the preceding fiscal year. Meanwhile, the construction sector is predicted to grow by 8.6%, marking a slight decrease from the previous year's 9.9% expansion rate.
These figures point towards a need for vigilance and adaptability in response to evolving economic conditions and market demands. Conversely, the agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishing sector is expected to witness a significant increase, with an anticipated growth rate of 3.8% this fiscal year, rising from just 1.4% in the prior year.
This surge may be attributed to favorable weather conditions, increased investment, and a focus on improving productivity within the sector. The utilities sector, which encompasses electricity, gas, water, and other essential services, is projected to grow by 6.8% in the current fiscal year, albeit down from 7.5% growth recorded in the previous period. On a per capita basis, India’s GDP growth is forecasted to be 5.4% for the current fiscal year, a decrease from 7.2% in the preceding period.
These figures suggest a slightly challenging environment for individual consumers despite overall economic growth. In a separate analysis, the state-owned Bank of Baroda has estimated that India's GDP will further expand by 6.8% in the upcoming fiscal year 2025-2026, commencing on April 1. This optimistic forecast aligns with several positive indicators indicating India's economic resilience. Recent key indicators include strong air passenger traffic and a rising trend in services purchasing managers indices (PMIs), indicative of robust sectoral performance.
Increased tax collections also signal healthy government revenues, while heightened crop sowing suggests a strong agricultural sector poised for success. These factors collectively paint a promising picture for the Indian economy in the near future, although challenges persist amidst shifting global economic dynamics..