Indonesia is expected to see growth in retail sales during November, buoyed by enhanced demand for automotive fuel, spare parts, and clothing. This positive outlook is highlighted in the recent Retail Sales Survey published by Bank Indonesia. The Real Sales Index (RSI) is projected to increase by 1.7% year-on-year, reaching 211.5.
This marks an improvement from October's annual growth rate of 1.5%. On a monthly scale, retail sales are anticipated to rise by 0.4% in November, reflecting a slight recovery following a minimal contraction of 0.01% in October. Key drivers of this growth include sales in information and communication equipment, various household items, and apparel. October's RSI stood at 210.6, indicating a slowdown in annual growth compared to a robust 4.8% in September.
Despite this, the monthly contraction in October was notably less severe than the 2.5% decline seen in September. This resilience can be attributed to improved logistics for household equipment, spare parts, and food products. Inflationary concerns are anticipated to rise by January 2025, with the Price Expectations Index (PEI) projected to climb to 157.8 from 152.6, driven by worries surrounding excessive rainfall.
However, by April 2025, it is expected that price pressures will ease as demand stabilizes post-Eid-ul-Fitr, with the PEI potentially dipping to 165.4 from 169.4. Retailers express optimism regarding the sales recovery and inflation stabilization, supported by enhancing supply chain efficiencies and growing consumer demand..