Indonesia's retail sales are anticipated to continue their upward trajectory in September, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) predicted to reach 210.5. This figure indicates a robust 4.7% increase year-on-year, based on the data released by the country's Department of Communications on Wednesday. Key sectors contributing to this growth include the motor vehicle fuel, spare parts and accessories, and clothing industries.
These segments have demonstrated substantial resilience, fostering optimism in Indonesia's retail environment. However, when evaluating the monthly performance, retail sales are expected to contract by 2.5%, contrasting with the 1.7% growth recorded in August. This predicted decline can be attributed to decreased consumer demand, stemming from the conclusion of discount programs associated with Indonesia's Independence Day celebrations, known as Hari Ulang Tahun Republik Indonesia (HUT RI). In the previous month, August, the RSI was noted at 215.9, representing a notable 5.8% rise year-on-year, significantly outpacing July's growth rate of 4.5%.
Noteworthy contributors to this positive trend included the food, beverages, and tobacco sectors alongside motor vehicle fuel, which saw a monthly sales uptick of 1.7% after experiencing a notable contraction of 7.2% in July. The spike in consumer demand during the HUT RI festivities particularly benefited sectors such as food, beverages, tobacco, information and communication equipment, and various household goods, further illustrating the dynamic nature of retail consumption in Indonesia. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures are projected to ease in the coming months.
The General Price Expectation Index (GPEI) for November and February 2025 is set to decline to 134.3 and 155.9, respectively. This decrease is down from previous figures of 141.3 and 166.7, bolstered by enhanced distribution networks and greater product availability that continue to stabilize the market landscape..