US Job Market Outlook: Projected Job Growth and Federal Reserve Interest Rates Impact
2 months ago

LPL Financial analyst Jeffrey Roach projects that the U.S. private sector is set to add an average of 149,000 jobs each month in 2024. This figure represents a decline from the 192,000 jobs forecasted for 2023, with anticipated further decreases in job additions by 2025. In December, there was a substantial increase in non-farm payrolls, which surged by 256,000, contributing to a slight dip in the unemployment rate.

A significant factor contributing to this evolving labor landscape involves a potential wave of large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants, raising concerns about the implications for the economy. As a result, some economists speculate that the Federal Reserve may need to contemplate interest rate hikes in response to changes in labor supply and economic conditions.

Despite the potential challenges, Roach presents a more optimistic perspective. He emphasizes that over 16% of the non-labor force consists of foreign-born individuals, which includes undocumented immigrants. This demographic insight indicates that stricter immigration policies may not have the negative economic repercussions that some analysts predict.

In this intricate economic climate, the consensus appears to lean towards the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates, navigating economic stability while monitoring labor market shifts closely..

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Economic Calendar

Building Approvals m/m
2025-03-13 01:30:00
Actual
6.3%
Forecast
6.3%
Previous
0.7%

This indicator shows the number of permits for new construction projects.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-13 08:00:00
Actual
1.3%
Forecast
1.3%
Previous
0.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-13 08:00:00
Actual
0.6%
Forecast
0.6%
Previous
0.0%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Producer and Import Prices y/y
2025-03-13 08:30:00
Actual
-0.1%
Forecast
Previous
-0.3%

The producer price index relates to goods produced and sold on the domestic market or exported by enterprises based in Switzerland.

Producer and Import Prices m/m
2025-03-13 08:30:00
Actual
0.3%
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.1%

The producer price index relates to goods produced and sold on the domestic market or exported by enterprises based in Switzerland.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-03-13 11:00:00
Actual
0.0%
Forecast
-0.9%
Previous
-1.5% R (-2.0%)

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-03-13 11:00:00
Actual
0.8%
Forecast
0.5%
Previous
-0.4% R (-1.1%)

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
3.4%
Forecast
3.6%
Previous
3.6%

Because prices for food and energy have tended to be so erratic in recent years, some economists prefer to focus attention on an index measuring prices for finished goods other than foods and energy as a better measure of the so-called core or underlying rate of inflation.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
-0.1%
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.3%

Because prices for food and energy have tended to be so erratic in recent years, some economists prefer to focus attention on an index measuring prices for finished goods other than foods and energy as a better measure of the so-called core or underlying rate of inflation.

Initial Jobless Claims
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
220 000
Forecast
226 000
Previous
221 000

Initial Jobless Claims is a report issued by the U.

Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
0.0%
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.4%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
3.2%
Forecast
3.3%
Previous
3.5%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

Building Permits m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
-3.2%
Forecast
-5.3%
Previous
11.0%

The Building Permits Survey covers all Canadian municipalities that issue permits.

Natural Gas Storage
2025-03-13 15:30:00
Actual
1698 BCF
Forecast
Previous
1760 BCF

This report tracks U.

Food Price Index (FPI) m/m
2025-03-13 22:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.9%

The Food Price Index (FPI) measures the price change rate of a fixed basket of food goods and services purchased by households.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 07:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.2%

The Consumer Price Index describes the price development of goods and services purchased in Finland by households resident in Finland.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 07:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.7%

The Consumer Price Index describes the price development of goods and services purchased in Finland by households resident in Finland.

Construction Output m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.2%

Construction output is a monthly estimate of the output of the construction industry in both the private and public sectors.

Construction Output y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.5%

Construction output is a monthly estimate of the output of the construction industry in both the private and public sectors.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-1.9%

The Industrial Production index measures the volume of production of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and energy supply industries, which covered 18.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.5%

The Industrial Production index measures the volume of production of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and energy supply industries, which covered 18.

Manufacturing Production m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.7%

The Index of Manufacturing Production covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and these are aggregated to form the resulting monthly manufacturing output time series.

Manufacturing Production y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-1.4%

The Index of Manufacturing Production covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and these are aggregated to form the resulting monthly manufacturing output time series.

Visible Trade Balance
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-17.45 B GBP

It represents the difference between imports and exports of goods.

Trade Balance Non EU
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-6.10 B GBP

A gauge of Britain's trade with countries outside of Europe.

Unemployment Rate
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
10.4%

Up to and including March 2005, data refers to all persons of working age who during the reference week were not employed, but were willing and able to work and had looked for work (or would have looked for work if they had not been temporarily prevented from doing so) during the last four weeks.

Final Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
-0.2%

The consumer price index for Germany measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.3%
Previous
2.3%

The consumer price index for Germany measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.8%
Previous
2.8%

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.6%
Previous
-0.2%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons.

Wholesale Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.9%

The index of selling prices in wholesale trade measures - on a representative basis - the development of prices of goods sold by wholesalers within Germany to the extent that such sales are included under wholesale, such as contracts concluded with resellers, processors or other bulk purchasers.

Wholesale Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.9%

The index of selling prices in wholesale trade measures - on a representative basis - the development of prices of goods sold by wholesalers within Germany to the extent that such sales are included under wholesale, such as contracts concluded with resellers, processors or other bulk purchasers.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.1%

The Consumer Price Index is the official instrument for measuring inflation.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.8%
Previous
1.7%

The Consumer Price Index is the official instrument for measuring inflation.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-03-14 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
0.9%

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-03-14 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.0%
Previous
-0.2%

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
3.0%
Previous
2.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
0.2%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-03-14 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.9%
Previous
2.9%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-03-14 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
-0.1%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-03-14 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-3.1%

Industrial production refers to the volume of output generated by production units classified under the industrial sectors.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-03-14 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-7.1%

Industrial production refers to the volume of output generated by production units classified under the industrial sectors.

M2 Money Supply y/y
2025-03-14 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
7.0%
Previous
7.0%

Money Supply is the aggregate amount of monetary assets available in a country at a specific time.

New Loans
2025-03-14 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
1275 B Yuan
Previous
5130 B Yuan

They represent the value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month.

Wholesale Sales m/m
2025-03-14 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
1.8%
Previous
-0.2%

This survey presents estimates of monthly sales levels for wholesale merchants in Canada, each province and territory.

Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence
2025-03-14 15:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
64.7

Consumer confidence surveys measure individual households' level of confidence in the economy's performance.

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