Walt Disney's 'Moana 2' experienced an impressive box office opening during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, leading analysts to predict that its earnings will surpass initial estimates. B. Riley Securities reported that the animated fantasy musical sequel opened with a remarkable domestic box office total of $57.5 million on Wednesday, according to data from BoxOfficeMojo, a company owned by Amazon's IMDb. The film is anticipated to earn at least $175 million over its first five days, with the potential to exceed $200 million.
This projection significantly surpasses the original estimates, which ranged from $135 million to $145 million, as noted by B. Riley analyst Eric Wold. Current box office forecasts suggest that Paramount Global's 'Sonic the Hedgehog 3' is set to generate at least $55 million domestically during its opening weekend on December 20.
Meanwhile, JAKKS Pacific, the toy manufacturer with product licenses for both 'Moana 2' and 'Sonic the Hedgehog 3', is expected to see solid demand for toys and merchandise throughout the holiday season, according to Wold. JAKKS Pacific previously reported that it sold approximately $40 million to $50 million worth of products related to the original 'Moana' film, which was available in retail stores for about 12 to 18 months following its release.
This first installment opened with $56.6 million and accumulated a total of $248.8 million in domestic box office revenue, as evidenced by BoxOfficeMojo's data. While there may not be a direct correlation between box office revenues and the demand for licensed products, stronger-than-expected ticket sales for 'Moana 2' could enhance merchandise sales, according to Wold. Strong merchandise demand associated with both 'Moana 2' and 'Sonic the Hedgehog 3' is likely to support continued sales into the first half of 2025, adding to the projected strength from evergreen product sales.
Consequently, B. Riley maintains its buy rating and sets a price target of $41 for the JAKKS Pacific stock..