Navigating Investment Risks: Insights on the S&P 500 and Precious Metals Amid Uncertainties
4 months ago

The S&P 500 index is anticipated to face challenges in achieving 'meaningful new highs' in the coming months due to a myriad of factors, including uncertainties surrounding the impending US presidential elections and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to insights from the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, the benchmark equity index managed to appreciate by 0.9%, reaching 5,457.6 during late-afternoon trading on Monday, with a notable 14% increase observed year-to-date.

The recent surge in the index, marked by a robust 10% rally from August 5 to August 30, coincided with macroeconomic indicators suggesting a preference for a soft landing as opposed to a hard landing, along with US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indications of a potential reduction in interest rates. Wells Fargo Investment highlights the significance of the current market recovery, stating, 'This recovery is even more remarkable given that almost none of the concerns that bothered markets just a few weeks ago have dissipated.' The firm emphasizes lingering high levels of uncertainty concerning Middle Eastern geopolitics, closely contested US elections, a sluggish global economic outlook, and growing skepticism about the near-term implications of artificial intelligence advancements. In light of these conditions, savvy investors may find opportunities to strategically rebalance their portfolios and mitigate exposure to risk assets, adhering to the allocation recommendations provided by the firm.

Notably, Wells Fargo Investment identifies several 'unfavorable' sectors, including emerging-market equities as well as consumer discretionary, real estate, consumer staples, and utilities sectors. A notable trend has emerged within the precious metals sector, which has benefitted from persistent economic uncertainties, heightened geopolitical risks, and clearer indications regarding potential easing of monetary policies by the US Federal Reserve.

Specifically, gold has demonstrated significant outperformance against silver since global central banks have increasingly turned to bolster their gold reserves, with purchases ramping up since 2022. As reported by Wells Fargo Investment, the outperformance of gold against silver is quantified at 16% as of September 3. Central banks globally have acquired a whopping 1,053 metric tons of gold over the last year, nearly doubling the amounts seen in 2021.

Looking forward to 2025, Wells Fargo Investment anticipates that many current trends will persist, projecting continued robust performance in the precious metals sector, particularly predicting that gold will consistently outperform other precious metals. In terms of price forecasts, Wells Fargo Investment has maintained its price target range for gold, suggesting valuations between $2,400 to $2,500 per troy ounce by the end of 2024, with expectations of $2,500 to $2,600 for the following year.

Importantly, it's worth noting that Wells Fargo Investment operates as a unit of a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo ($WFC)..

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Economic Calendar

Unemployment Rate
2025-01-15 06:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
6.9%

Up to and including March 2005, data refers to all persons of working age who during the reference week were not employed, but were willing and able to work and had looked for work (or would have looked for work if they had not been temporarily prevented from doing so) during the last four weeks.

Gross Domestic Product y/y
2025-01-15 07:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.5%

GDP, gross domestic product at market prices is the final result of the production activity of resident producer units.

Core Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
3.4%
Previous
3.5%

Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco items.

Core Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.0%

Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco items.

Core Output Producer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.0%

The output price index measures change in the prices of goods produced by UK manufacturers (these are often called 'factory gate prices').

Core Output Producer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.6%

The output price index measures change in the prices of goods produced by UK manufacturers (these are often called 'factory gate prices').

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.6%
Previous
2.6%

The CPI is the main UK measure of inflation for macroeconomic purposes and forms the basis for the Government's inflation target.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.1%

The CPI is the main UK measure of inflation for macroeconomic purposes and forms the basis for the Government's inflation target.

Input Producer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-1.9%

Producer Price Index is a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers.

Input Producer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.0%

Producer Price Index is a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers.

Output Producer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
0.3%

Producer Price Index is a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers.

Output Producer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.6%

Producer Price Index is a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers.

Retail Prices Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.1%

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) is the most familiar general purpose domestic measure of inflation in the United Kingdom.

Retail Prices Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
3.8%
Previous
3.6%

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) is the most familiar general purpose domestic measure of inflation in the United Kingdom.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.0%
Previous
0.0%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.8%
Previous
0.8%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Wholesale Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
0.0%

The index of selling prices in wholesale trade measures - on a representative basis - the development of prices of goods sold by wholesalers within Germany to the extent that such sales are included under wholesale, such as contracts concluded with resellers, processors or other bulk purchasers.

Wholesale Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.6%

The index of selling prices in wholesale trade measures - on a representative basis - the development of prices of goods sold by wholesalers within Germany to the extent that such sales are included under wholesale, such as contracts concluded with resellers, processors or other bulk purchasers.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
-0.1% R (0.2%)

The Consumer Price Index is the official instrument for measuring inflation.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
1.3%
Previous
1.3%

The Consumer Price Index is the official instrument for measuring inflation.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-01-15 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
1.8%
Previous
1.8%

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-01-15 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.2%

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-15 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
0.2% R (0.4%)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-15 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.8%
Previous
2.4% R (2.8%)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-01-15 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
0.0% R (0.4%)

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-01-15 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.8%
Previous
2.4% R (2.8%)

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

HBOS House Prices y/y
2025-01-15 10:30:00
Actual
Forecast
3.5%
Previous
3.4%

Halifax is the UK's largest mortgage lender and conducts a wide range of housing research including the long standing Halifax House Price Index.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-01-15 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
-1.8%
Previous
-1.2%

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-01-15 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.0%

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

MBA Mortgage Applications
2025-01-15 13:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-3.7%

The Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey contains 15 indices covering application activity for fixed rate, adjustable rate, conventional and government loans for home purchases and refinances.

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m
2025-01-15 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.3%

Bureau of Labour Statistics also calculates and publishes indexes for special aggregations, such as energy items, that cut across the above classification scheme.

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y
2025-01-15 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
3.3%
Previous
3.3%

Bureau of Labour Statistics also calculates and publishes indexes for special aggregations, such as energy items, that cut across the above classification scheme.

New York Empire Manufacturing Index
2025-01-15 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-0.30
Previous
0.20

Index represents a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
2025-01-15 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
163.6%

This survey collects data on monthly retail sales (in dollars and in units) of new motor vehicles sold in Canada.

Wholesale Sales m/m
2025-01-15 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-0.6%
Previous
1.0%

This survey presents estimates of monthly sales levels for wholesale merchants in Canada, each province and territory.

Fed's Barkin Speaks
2025-01-15 15:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Fed's Kashkari Speaks
2025-01-15 16:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Crude Oil Inventories
2025-01-15 16:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
414.6 M Barrels

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) provides timely information on supply and prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products in the context of historical data and forecasts.

Fed's Williams Speaks
2025-01-15 17:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Beige Book
2025-01-15 20:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year.

Food Price Index (FPI) m/m
2025-01-15 22:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.1%

The Food Price Index (FPI) measures the price change rate of a fixed basket of food goods and services purchased by households.

RICS House Price Balance
2025-01-16 01:01:00
Actual
Forecast
28%
Previous
25%

RICS House Price Balance.

Employment Change m/m
2025-01-16 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
14.5
Previous
35.6

The Employment Change indicator is a measurement of new jobs created within the Australian economy throughout the previous month.

Participation Rate
2025-01-16 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
67.0%

Participation rate is the ratio between the labour force and the overall size of national population of the same age range.

Unemployment Rate
2025-01-16 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
4.0%
Previous
3.9%

Unemployment rate: the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force.

Construction Output y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.7%

Construction output is a monthly estimate of the output of the construction industry in both the private and public sectors.

Construction Output m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.5%
Previous
-0.4%

Construction output is a monthly estimate of the output of the construction industry in both the private and public sectors.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
-0.6%

The Industrial Production index measures the volume of production of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and energy supply industries, which covered 18.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
-1.0%
Previous
-0.7%

The Industrial Production index measures the volume of production of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and energy supply industries, which covered 18.

Manufacturing Production y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
-0.3%
Previous
0.0%

The Index of Manufacturing Production covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and these are aggregated to form the resulting monthly manufacturing output time series.

Manufacturing Production m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
-0.6%

The Index of Manufacturing Production covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and these are aggregated to form the resulting monthly manufacturing output time series.

Visible Trade Balance
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
-18.00 B GBP
Previous
-18.97 B GBP

It represents the difference between imports and exports of goods.

Trade Balance Non EU
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-7.28 B GBP

A gauge of Britain's trade with countries outside of Europe.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.6%
Previous
2.2% R (2.6%)

The consumer price index for Germany measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes.

Final Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
-0.2% R (0.4%)

The consumer price index for Germany measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.8%
Previous
2.4% R (2.8%)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-01-16 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.7%
Previous
-0.7% R (0.7%)

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-01-16 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
1.3%
Previous
1.3%

The Consumer price index measures changes in prices over time of a sample of goods (or basket) assuming that the quantities purchased are constant over two consecutive periods.

Final Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-01-16 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
-0.1% R (0.1%)

The Consumer price index measures changes in prices over time of a sample of goods (or basket) assuming that the quantities purchased are constant over two consecutive periods.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-01-16 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
1.4%
Previous
1.5% R (1.4%)

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-01-16 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
-0.1% R (0.1%)

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Credit Conditions Survey
2025-01-16 10:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

Bank of England implements the survey of bank and non-bank lenders to maintain monetary stability and financial stability.

Trade Balance
2025-01-16 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
4.500 B EUR
Previous
5.153 B EUR

It measures the difference between imports and exports data in billions of EUR.

Trade Balance EU
2025-01-16 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.66 B EUR

The headline figure, expressed in billions of EUR, is the value of exports to European Union countries minus the value of imports from those countries.

Trade Balance
2025-01-16 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
7.2 B EUR
Previous
6.8 B EUR

The External trade balance indicator is the difference between exports and imports of goods.

Housing Starts
2025-01-16 14:15:00
Actual
Forecast
256.0
Previous
262.4

The start of construction is defined in terms of the construction work as a whole and not particular housing units within it.

Import Price Index m/m
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-0.2%
Previous
0.1%

Import Price Index measures the change over time in the prices of goods or services purchased from abroad by U.

Import Price Index y/y
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.3%

Import Price Index measures the change over time in the prices of goods or services purchased from abroad by U.

Initial Jobless Claims
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
210 000
Previous
201 000

Initial Jobless Claims is a report issued by the U.

Philadelphia FED Index
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-7.0
Previous
-16.4

The Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District.

Retail Sales m/m
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.6%
Previous
0.7%

Sales include merchandise sold (for cash or credit at retail or wholesale) by establishments primarily engaged in retail trade.

Retail Sales less Autos m/m
2025-01-16 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.2%

They represent change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

Business Inventories m/m
2025-01-16 16:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
0.1%

Index represents the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.

NAHB Housing Market Index
2025-01-16 16:00:00
Actual
Forecast
45
Previous
46

The Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) on current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months.

Natural Gas Storage
2025-01-16 16:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3373 BCF

This report tracks U.

Fed's Williams Speaks
2025-01-16 17:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

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