The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has recently confirmed its projections for global oil demand for the years 2025 and 2026, amidst increasing economic uncertainty and rising trade tensions. According to its latest monthly report, the cartel anticipates an increase in oil demand of 1.45 million barrels per day this year and a slightly lower increase of 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026.
This forecast is underpinned by strong air travel demand and robust road mobility, particularly in diesel consumption and trucking operations. Moreover, industrial, construction, and agricultural sectors in nations outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are expected to provide additional support for growth in the oil market. OPEC also maintains a steady global economic growth forecast of 3.1% for the year 2025 and a slightly elevated 3.2% for 2026.
However, the cartel expresses concerns over uncertainties surrounding trade, indicating that these factors are contributing to rising apprehensions among market participants. Specifically, OPEC's GDP projections for the United States remain stable at 2.4% and 2.3% for the following two years, respectively. Despite a favorable outlook for consumer demand momentum in the US, OPEC notes that the unpredictable nature of trade relations and persistent inflationary concerns can potentially jeopardize this economic stability.
The ongoing negotiations surrounding tariffs with Canada and Mexico suggest that there could be a resolution; however, there remains a significant risk that these tariffs could remain in effect longer than initially anticipated, which might prompt additional retaliatory measures that could ultimately hinder economic growth. Moreover, price pressures instigated by trade dynamics, particularly within the North American manufacturing sector, have the potential to revive inflationary pressures, which OPEC warns could adversely affect the economic landscape. OPEC's monthly report highlights that the highly integrated industrial sector in North America stands to face considerable challenges in adjusting to these tariffs, which could lead to significant short-term ramifications. In the latest market activity, West Texas Intermediate crude oil experienced a robust surge of 2.2%, reaching $67.72 per barrel, while Brent crude saw a 2.1% increase, settling at $71.01 per barrel.
Supporting these price movements, the Energy Information Administration indicated that Brent's spot price could escalate to $75 per barrel by the third quarter, primarily driven by diminishing production levels in Iran and Venezuela, which is likely to deplete global oil inventories in the upcoming second quarter. Lastly, OPEC has opted to retain its liquid supply projections over the next two years unchanged from previous analyses.
It expects that the supply from countries not aligned with the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will likely rise by 1.01 million barrels per day in the current year, tapering slightly to an increment of 1 million barrels per day by 2026. The Declaration of Cooperation refers to the alliance between OPEC and non-OPEC nations working in tandem to stabilize oil markets..