Online holiday spending growth is expected to outpace last year's rate, reaching a new all-time high this season, as forecasted by Adobe. US online sales are projected to reach an impressive $240.8 billion during the period from November 1 to December 31, representing an annual growth rate of 8.4%, according to insights garnered from Adobe Analytics.
The preliminary data for the 2023 holiday season indicates that spending increased by 4.9% to a total of $221.8 billion. A notable trend emerging this holiday season is the rise of mobile shopping. It is anticipated that shopping through mobile devices will surge approximately 13% year over year, reaching a record high of $128.1 billion.
This marks a significant growth in the proportion of overall online holiday spending attributed to mobile devices, with the share of consumers utilizing smartphones and tablets for shopping expected to hit 53.2%. Particularly during the five-day span that encompasses Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday — commonly referred to as Cyber Week — spending is set to increase by 7% compared to the previous year, climbing to a total of $40.6 billion.
This projection indicates a slight deceleration from the 7.8% growth reported by Adobe for the 2023 season. Cyber Week is expected to account for an estimated 16.9% of total holiday season shopping, with Cyber Monday continuing to be recognized as the peak shopping day. Cyber Monday is anticipated to generate a record $13.2 billion in online sales, reflecting a 6.1% rise compared to the same day in the previous year.
The projections for Black Friday indicate a significant increase in spending, with forecasts suggesting an uptick of 9.9% to $10.8 billion, while Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to see a rise of 8.7% to $6.1 billion. These anticipated annual growth rates outpace that of Cyber Monday, underscoring evolving consumer behavior as shoppers display a growing inclination towards early deals.
Vivek Pandya, Adobe's Digital Insights Lead Analyst, commented, "The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in different ways. These discounting patterns are driving material changes in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading up to goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for US retailers." Amidst a price-sensitive consumer base due to the current macroeconomic landscape, Adobe projects that consumers will find "major discounts" of up to 30% this holiday season, matching the discount levels seen in 2023.
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