In October, South Korea experienced a notable boost in exports, recording a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, totaling $57.5 billion. This marks the 13th consecutive month of growth, although it falls short of the 7.5% increase recorded in September and the 7% forecasted by market analysts. Import levels also climbed, rising 1.7% to $54.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $3.2 billion for the 17th month in a row. Despite these positive headlines, ING Research noted that when adjusting for working days, exports exhibited a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2%, the first such decrease observed since October 2023.
This dip may indicate emerging challenges in maintaining the growth trajectory. Strong performances were observed in key sectors, with exports of semiconductors surging by 40.3% and automobile exports increasing by 5.5%. However, there was a significant decline of 34.9% in oil product exports, which can be attributed to falling global oil prices. Support for export growth was derived primarily from shipments to China and the United States, which grew by 10.9% and 3.4% respectively, spurred by an increased demand for semiconductors and petrochemicals.
Nevertheless, ING Research has raised concerns regarding the sustainability of this growth, citing that positive effects from previously low oil and semiconductor prices are likely to diminish, potentially impacting future export figures. Despite these concerns, ING remains hopeful, asserting that "exports should continue to serve as the main engine for GDP growth.".