UK Economic Data Influences FTSE 100 and Inflation Trends
8 months ago

A barrage of economic data dominated British headlines on Wednesday, sending the FTSE 100 index 0.05% in the green at closing. The blue-chip index's top stock was Melrose Industries ($MRO.GB) at 2.90% in the green. In contrast, Entain's ($ENT) legal woes in Australia negatively impacted the stock, resulting in a loss of 2.66%. The British sports betting and gaming group is under investigation in Australia over anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing issues. In other news, the UK annual inflation rate for November increased to 2.6% from 2.3%, while core inflation also saw an increase to 3.5% from the previous month's 3.3%.

Meanwhile, the decline in producer input prices eased to 1.9% in November from 2.4% in October, whereas the annual retail price growth ticked up to 3.6% from 3.4% during the same period. Investors are also keeping a close eye on the much-anticipated US Fed interest rate decision later in the day. Economists are predicting that policymakers may lower the key rate to 4.5% from the current 4.75%. Back in the UK, the Bank of England is expected to maintain its rate at 4.75%.

"In November, the BoE struck a cautious tone, with hawkish upward revisions to its growth and inflation forecasts due to the fiscal easing announced. The language emphasized a gradual approach and the need for policy to remain restrictive, consistent with a hold in December and a quarterly cutting path," BofA Global Research mentioned in a note. "We expect the guidance to remain unchanged from November, focusing on a gradual and meeting-by-meeting strategy, as well as the necessity for policy to stay restrictive.

This aligns with our prediction of a quarterly cutting pace to reach 3.50% by early 2026, anticipating four more quarterly cuts in 2025 and one in early 2026," analysts concluded..

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