US Equity Markets Surge Amid Mixed Economic Signals: Inflation Expectations and Corporate News Drive Gains
6 months ago

On Monday, the US benchmark equity indexes experienced a significant increase as market participants assessed a survey detailing consumers' inflation expectations, while also gearing up for the official inflation data slated for release later in the week. The leading stock indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite each saw a rise of 1.2%.

Specifically, the Dow concluded the trading session at 40,829.6 points, the S&P 500 reached a notable 5,471.1, and the Nasdaq wrapped up at 16,884.6 points. With the exception of the communication services sector, which remained relatively stagnant, gains were noted across all sectors; consumer discretionary and industrials spearheaded this upward movement. In terms of economic indicators, a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York highlighted that US consumers' inflation expectations saw a rebound for the medium-term forecast during August, although the one-year and five-year expectations remained unchanged.

The report also described the labor market outlook as mixed but largely stable. Upcoming government data is anticipated to show an increase in US consumer inflation by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year for the previous month, according to a consensus compiled by Bloomberg. Additionally, the official report on producer prices for August is set to be unveiled on Thursday. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released on Friday, indicated that the US economy added a lesser number of jobs than expected in August, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. Stifel analysts commented in a note to clients on Monday that the 'weaker-than-expected rise in topline hiring coupled with a lack of significant upward motion in inflation registers last month seems to reinforce the Federal Reserve's strategy to conduct a preliminary rate cut later this month.' Despite this, they acknowledged that 'the absence of meaningful downward pressure on prices, along with a decrease in the unemployment rate and an uptick in wage growth, seemingly eliminates the need for a more aggressive policy response, whether it be a more pronounced rate cut or an expedited progression.' On the interest rate front, the probability for a 25-basis-point cut in rates next week rose to 71% by Monday, up from 70% on Friday, while the likelihood of a more drastic 50-basis-point cut saw a slight drop to 29% from 30%, based on insights from the CME FedWatch tool. In the bond market, the yield on the US two-year treasury note increased by 3.1 basis points to reach 3.68% on Monday, while the 10-year treasury yield remained relatively stable at 3.71%. In the realm of corporate news, Boeing ($BA) shares advanced by 3.4%, making it the second-best performance on the Dow for the day.

The aerospace manufacturer announced on Sunday that it has reached a tentative labor agreement with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents over 33,000 employees. Meanwhile, Moderna ($MRNA) reported on Monday that it has secured a Drug Establishment License from Health Canada for its production facility located in Laval, Quebec.

As a result, the pharmaceutical company saw its stock rise by 5.1%, placing it among the top gainers on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. Progress Software ($PRGS) has confirmed an agreement to acquire ShareFile, a software-as-a-service document collaboration business, from Cloud Software Group for a total of $875 million, despite a 2.5% drop in the value of Progress shares pre-acquisition announcement. On the commodity front, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices climbed by 1.4%, hitting $68.65 per barrel on Monday.

D.A. Davidson outlined that this price increase is linked to 'supply concerns,' as indicated in their latest client note. Precious metals also saw movement, as gold experienced a rise of 0.4% landing at $2,535.40 per troy ounce, while silver prices surged by 1.8%, resulting in a value of $28.69 per ounce..

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Economic Calendar

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
2025-03-11 01:01:00
Actual
0.9%
Forecast
Previous
2.5%

Retail Sales Monitor (RSM).

NAB Business Confidence
2025-03-11 01:30:00
Actual
-1
Forecast
Previous
5

A survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia.

NAB Business Conditions
2025-03-11 01:30:00
Actual
4
Forecast
Previous
3

An index measuring sales, hiring and profits at Australian companies.

NFIB Small Business Index
2025-03-11 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
102.8

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components based on the answers of the NFIB members to questions related to: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expectations for the economy to improve, expectations for real sales to grow, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, whether it is a good time to expand, and earnings trend.

ECOFIN Meeting
2025-03-11 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Eurogroup Meeting
2025-03-11 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

The Eurogroup, the main forum for the management of the single currency area, is an informal body that brings together the finance ministers of countries whose currency is the euro.

Redbook Retail Sales
2025-03-11 13:55:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
6.6%

The LJR Redbook survey tracks 15 retail stores every week to determine the changes in sales.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
2025-03-11 15:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
7.600 M

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor.

Unemployment Rate
2025-03-12 06:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
7.2%

Up to and including March 2005, data refers to all persons of working age who during the reference week were not employed, but were willing and able to work and had looked for work (or would have looked for work if they had not been temporarily prevented from doing so) during the last four weeks.

Retail Sales y/y
2025-03-12 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
4.0%

The main objective of the Retail Trade (or Retail Sales) Indices (RTI) is to obtain the fundamental characteristics of companies dedicated to the exercise of retail sales in Spain, which facilitates measuring in the short term, the development of activity in the sector.

ECB Press Conference, ECB President Speaks
2025-03-12 09:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
MBA Mortgage Applications
2025-03-12 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
20.4%

The Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey contains 15 indices covering application activity for fixed rate, adjustable rate, conventional and government loans for home purchases and refinances.

OPEC Meeting
2025-03-12 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.3%

Bureau of Labour Statistics also calculates and publishes indexes for special aggregations, such as energy items, that cut across the above classification scheme.

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.4%

Bureau of Labour Statistics also calculates and publishes indexes for special aggregations, such as energy items, that cut across the above classification scheme.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.5%

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) provides an estimate of the price change between any two periods.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.0%

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) provides an estimate of the price change between any two periods.

Crude Oil Inventories
2025-03-12 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
433.8 M Barrels

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) provides timely information on supply and prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products in the context of historical data and forecasts.

Interest Rate Decision
2025-03-12 14:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.00%

The Bank carries out monetary policy by influencing short-term interest rates.

Federal Budget Balance
2025-03-12 19:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-129.0 B USD

The Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government (MTS) is prepared by the Financial Management Service, Department of the Treasury, and after approval by the Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.

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