US Equity Markets Surge Amid Mixed Economic Signals: Inflation Expectations and Corporate News Drive Gains
6 months ago

On Monday, the US benchmark equity indexes experienced a significant increase as market participants assessed a survey detailing consumers' inflation expectations, while also gearing up for the official inflation data slated for release later in the week. The leading stock indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite each saw a rise of 1.2%.

Specifically, the Dow concluded the trading session at 40,829.6 points, the S&P 500 reached a notable 5,471.1, and the Nasdaq wrapped up at 16,884.6 points. With the exception of the communication services sector, which remained relatively stagnant, gains were noted across all sectors; consumer discretionary and industrials spearheaded this upward movement. In terms of economic indicators, a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York highlighted that US consumers' inflation expectations saw a rebound for the medium-term forecast during August, although the one-year and five-year expectations remained unchanged.

The report also described the labor market outlook as mixed but largely stable. Upcoming government data is anticipated to show an increase in US consumer inflation by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year for the previous month, according to a consensus compiled by Bloomberg. Additionally, the official report on producer prices for August is set to be unveiled on Thursday. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released on Friday, indicated that the US economy added a lesser number of jobs than expected in August, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. Stifel analysts commented in a note to clients on Monday that the 'weaker-than-expected rise in topline hiring coupled with a lack of significant upward motion in inflation registers last month seems to reinforce the Federal Reserve's strategy to conduct a preliminary rate cut later this month.' Despite this, they acknowledged that 'the absence of meaningful downward pressure on prices, along with a decrease in the unemployment rate and an uptick in wage growth, seemingly eliminates the need for a more aggressive policy response, whether it be a more pronounced rate cut or an expedited progression.' On the interest rate front, the probability for a 25-basis-point cut in rates next week rose to 71% by Monday, up from 70% on Friday, while the likelihood of a more drastic 50-basis-point cut saw a slight drop to 29% from 30%, based on insights from the CME FedWatch tool. In the bond market, the yield on the US two-year treasury note increased by 3.1 basis points to reach 3.68% on Monday, while the 10-year treasury yield remained relatively stable at 3.71%. In the realm of corporate news, Boeing ($BA) shares advanced by 3.4%, making it the second-best performance on the Dow for the day.

The aerospace manufacturer announced on Sunday that it has reached a tentative labor agreement with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents over 33,000 employees. Meanwhile, Moderna ($MRNA) reported on Monday that it has secured a Drug Establishment License from Health Canada for its production facility located in Laval, Quebec.

As a result, the pharmaceutical company saw its stock rise by 5.1%, placing it among the top gainers on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. Progress Software ($PRGS) has confirmed an agreement to acquire ShareFile, a software-as-a-service document collaboration business, from Cloud Software Group for a total of $875 million, despite a 2.5% drop in the value of Progress shares pre-acquisition announcement. On the commodity front, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices climbed by 1.4%, hitting $68.65 per barrel on Monday.

D.A. Davidson outlined that this price increase is linked to 'supply concerns,' as indicated in their latest client note. Precious metals also saw movement, as gold experienced a rise of 0.4% landing at $2,535.40 per troy ounce, while silver prices surged by 1.8%, resulting in a value of $28.69 per ounce..

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Economic Calendar

Building Approvals m/m
2025-03-13 01:30:00
Actual
6.3%
Forecast
6.3%
Previous
0.7%

This indicator shows the number of permits for new construction projects.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-13 08:00:00
Actual
1.3%
Forecast
1.3%
Previous
0.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-13 08:00:00
Actual
0.6%
Forecast
0.6%
Previous
0.0%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Producer and Import Prices y/y
2025-03-13 08:30:00
Actual
-0.1%
Forecast
Previous
-0.3%

The producer price index relates to goods produced and sold on the domestic market or exported by enterprises based in Switzerland.

Producer and Import Prices m/m
2025-03-13 08:30:00
Actual
0.3%
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.1%

The producer price index relates to goods produced and sold on the domestic market or exported by enterprises based in Switzerland.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-03-13 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
-0.9%
Previous
-2.0%

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-03-13 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.5%
Previous
-1.1%

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
3.6%
Previous
3.6%

Because prices for food and energy have tended to be so erratic in recent years, some economists prefer to focus attention on an index measuring prices for finished goods other than foods and energy as a better measure of the so-called core or underlying rate of inflation.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.3%

Because prices for food and energy have tended to be so erratic in recent years, some economists prefer to focus attention on an index measuring prices for finished goods other than foods and energy as a better measure of the so-called core or underlying rate of inflation.

Initial Jobless Claims
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
226 000
Previous
221 000

Initial Jobless Claims is a report issued by the U.

Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.4%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
3.3%
Previous
3.5%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

Building Permits m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-5.3%
Previous
11.0%

The Building Permits Survey covers all Canadian municipalities that issue permits.

Natural Gas Storage
2025-03-13 15:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-46 BCF
Previous
-80 BCF

This report tracks U.

Food Price Index (FPI) m/m
2025-03-13 22:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.9%

The Food Price Index (FPI) measures the price change rate of a fixed basket of food goods and services purchased by households.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 07:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.2%

The Consumer Price Index describes the price development of goods and services purchased in Finland by households resident in Finland.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 07:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.7%

The Consumer Price Index describes the price development of goods and services purchased in Finland by households resident in Finland.

Construction Output m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.2%

Construction output is a monthly estimate of the output of the construction industry in both the private and public sectors.

Construction Output y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.5%

Construction output is a monthly estimate of the output of the construction industry in both the private and public sectors.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-1.9%

The Industrial Production index measures the volume of production of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and energy supply industries, which covered 18.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.5%

The Industrial Production index measures the volume of production of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and energy supply industries, which covered 18.

Manufacturing Production m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.7%

The Index of Manufacturing Production covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and these are aggregated to form the resulting monthly manufacturing output time series.

Manufacturing Production y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-1.4%

The Index of Manufacturing Production covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and these are aggregated to form the resulting monthly manufacturing output time series.

Visible Trade Balance
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-17.45 B GBP

It represents the difference between imports and exports of goods.

Trade Balance Non EU
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-6.10 B GBP

A gauge of Britain's trade with countries outside of Europe.

Unemployment Rate
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
10.4%

Up to and including March 2005, data refers to all persons of working age who during the reference week were not employed, but were willing and able to work and had looked for work (or would have looked for work if they had not been temporarily prevented from doing so) during the last four weeks.

Final Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
-0.2%

The consumer price index for Germany measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.3%
Previous
2.3%

The consumer price index for Germany measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.8%
Previous
2.8%

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.6%
Previous
-0.2%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons.

Wholesale Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.9%

The index of selling prices in wholesale trade measures - on a representative basis - the development of prices of goods sold by wholesalers within Germany to the extent that such sales are included under wholesale, such as contracts concluded with resellers, processors or other bulk purchasers.

Wholesale Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.9%

The index of selling prices in wholesale trade measures - on a representative basis - the development of prices of goods sold by wholesalers within Germany to the extent that such sales are included under wholesale, such as contracts concluded with resellers, processors or other bulk purchasers.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.1%

The Consumer Price Index is the official instrument for measuring inflation.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.8%
Previous
1.7%

The Consumer Price Index is the official instrument for measuring inflation.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-03-14 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
0.9%

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-03-14 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
0.0%
Previous
-0.2%

The coverage of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is defined in terms of 'household final monetary consumption expenditure', by reference to the national accounts concept of the European System of Accounts.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-14 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
3.0%
Previous
2.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-14 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
0.2%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2025-03-14 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
2.9%
Previous
2.9%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2025-03-14 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.4%
Previous
-0.1%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-03-14 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-3.1%

Industrial production refers to the volume of output generated by production units classified under the industrial sectors.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-03-14 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-7.1%

Industrial production refers to the volume of output generated by production units classified under the industrial sectors.

M2 Money Supply y/y
2025-03-14 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
7.0%
Previous
7.0%

Money Supply is the aggregate amount of monetary assets available in a country at a specific time.

New Loans
2025-03-14 10:00:00
Actual
Forecast
1275 B Yuan
Previous
5130 B Yuan

They represent the value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month.

Wholesale Sales m/m
2025-03-14 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
1.8%
Previous
-0.2%

This survey presents estimates of monthly sales levels for wholesale merchants in Canada, each province and territory.

Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence
2025-03-14 15:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
64.7

Consumer confidence surveys measure individual households' level of confidence in the economy's performance.

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