US Equity Markets Surge Amid Mixed Economic Signals: Inflation Expectations and Corporate News Drive Gains
3 weeks ago

On Monday, the US benchmark equity indexes experienced a significant increase as market participants assessed a survey detailing consumers' inflation expectations, while also gearing up for the official inflation data slated for release later in the week. The leading stock indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite each saw a rise of 1.2%.

Specifically, the Dow concluded the trading session at 40,829.6 points, the S&P 500 reached a notable 5,471.1, and the Nasdaq wrapped up at 16,884.6 points. With the exception of the communication services sector, which remained relatively stagnant, gains were noted across all sectors; consumer discretionary and industrials spearheaded this upward movement. In terms of economic indicators, a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York highlighted that US consumers' inflation expectations saw a rebound for the medium-term forecast during August, although the one-year and five-year expectations remained unchanged.

The report also described the labor market outlook as mixed but largely stable. Upcoming government data is anticipated to show an increase in US consumer inflation by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year for the previous month, according to a consensus compiled by Bloomberg. Additionally, the official report on producer prices for August is set to be unveiled on Thursday. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released on Friday, indicated that the US economy added a lesser number of jobs than expected in August, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. Stifel analysts commented in a note to clients on Monday that the 'weaker-than-expected rise in topline hiring coupled with a lack of significant upward motion in inflation registers last month seems to reinforce the Federal Reserve's strategy to conduct a preliminary rate cut later this month.' Despite this, they acknowledged that 'the absence of meaningful downward pressure on prices, along with a decrease in the unemployment rate and an uptick in wage growth, seemingly eliminates the need for a more aggressive policy response, whether it be a more pronounced rate cut or an expedited progression.' On the interest rate front, the probability for a 25-basis-point cut in rates next week rose to 71% by Monday, up from 70% on Friday, while the likelihood of a more drastic 50-basis-point cut saw a slight drop to 29% from 30%, based on insights from the CME FedWatch tool. In the bond market, the yield on the US two-year treasury note increased by 3.1 basis points to reach 3.68% on Monday, while the 10-year treasury yield remained relatively stable at 3.71%. In the realm of corporate news, Boeing ($BA) shares advanced by 3.4%, making it the second-best performance on the Dow for the day.

The aerospace manufacturer announced on Sunday that it has reached a tentative labor agreement with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents over 33,000 employees. Meanwhile, Moderna ($MRNA) reported on Monday that it has secured a Drug Establishment License from Health Canada for its production facility located in Laval, Quebec.

As a result, the pharmaceutical company saw its stock rise by 5.1%, placing it among the top gainers on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. Progress Software ($PRGS) has confirmed an agreement to acquire ShareFile, a software-as-a-service document collaboration business, from Cloud Software Group for a total of $875 million, despite a 2.5% drop in the value of Progress shares pre-acquisition announcement. On the commodity front, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices climbed by 1.4%, hitting $68.65 per barrel on Monday.

D.A. Davidson outlined that this price increase is linked to 'supply concerns,' as indicated in their latest client note. Precious metals also saw movement, as gold experienced a rise of 0.4% landing at $2,535.40 per troy ounce, while silver prices surged by 1.8%, resulting in a value of $28.69 per ounce..

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Economic Calendar

Coincident Index
2024-10-07 07:00:00
Actual
-3.7
Forecast
Previous
3.1

The composite indexes are used to identify the volume of overall business activities by composing percentage changes of selected indicators.

Leading Index
2024-10-07 07:00:00
Actual
106.7
Forecast
107.2
Previous
109.3

The composite indexes are used to identify the volume of overall business activities by composing percentage changes of selected indicators.

HBOS House Prices y/y
2024-10-07 08:00:00
Actual
4.7%
Forecast
Previous
4.3%

Halifax is the UK's largest mortgage lender and conducts a wide range of housing research including the long standing Halifax House Price Index.

HBOS House Prices m/m
2024-10-07 08:00:00
Actual
0.3%
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.3%

Halifax is the UK's largest mortgage lender and conducts a wide range of housing research including the long standing Halifax House Price Index.

Factory Orders m/m
2024-10-07 08:00:00
Actual
-5.8%
Forecast
-1.9%
Previous
3.9%

The total of orders received comprises the value (excluding turnover tax) of all orders definitely accepted by the local units in manufacturing with 50 employees and over in the respective reference month.

Manufacturing Production m/m
2024-10-07 08:00:00
Actual
-1.1%
Forecast
Previous
2.1%

The primary goal of the Production Index is to monitor the development of added value (production minus intermediate consumption) in the industries.

SENTIX Investor Confidence
2024-10-07 10:30:00
Actual
-13.8
Forecast
-14.6
Previous
-15.4

SENTIX is one of the leading surveys of investor opinion in Germany.

Retail Sales m/m
2024-10-07 11:00:00
Actual
0.2%
Forecast
0.2%
Previous
0.1%

The Retail Trade Turnover Indices are business cycle indicators which show the monthly activity of the retail sector in value and volume.

Retail Sales y/y
2024-10-07 11:00:00
Actual
0.8%
Forecast
1.0%
Previous
-0.1%

The Retail Trade Turnover Indices are business cycle indicators which show the monthly activity of the retail sector in value and volume.

Eurogroup Meeting
2024-10-07 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

The Eurogroup, the main forum for the management of the single currency area, is an informal body that brings together the finance ministers of countries whose currency is the euro.

Fed's Kashkari Speaks
2024-10-07 19:50:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Consumer Credit
2024-10-07 21:00:00
Actual
Forecast
11.80 B USD
Previous
25.45 B USD

It covers most short - and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals, excluding loans secured by real estate.

Fed's Bostic Speaks
2024-10-08 00:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
2024-10-08 01:01:00
Actual
Forecast
0.8%
Previous
0.8%

Retail Sales Monitor (RSM).

Westpac Consumer Confidence
2024-10-08 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.5%

This indicator measures the level of consumer confidence and is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers' evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items.

Household Spending y/y
2024-10-08 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
-2.6%
Previous
0.1%

The survey unit is the household except one-person household of student in the entire area of Japan.

Current Account
2024-10-08 01:50:00
Actual
Forecast
2.921 T JPY
Previous
3.193 T JPY

It measures economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world, for a specific time period.

ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
2024-10-08 02:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-2.1%

Index represents the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities.

RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
2024-10-08 02:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

Minutes of the monetary policy meetings of the Reserve Bank Board are published two weeks after each meeting.

NAB Business Confidence
2024-10-08 02:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-4

A survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia.

NAB Business Conditions
2024-10-08 02:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3

An index measuring sales, hiring and profits at Australian companies.

Economy Watchers Survey
2024-10-08 07:00:00
Actual
Forecast
49.3
Previous
49

The purpose of the survey is to promptly gain an accurate grasp of region-by-region economic trends.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2024-10-08 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.6%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2024-10-08 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Industrial Production m/m
2024-10-08 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.8%
Previous
-2.4%

The production index measures the monthly performance of the industry in Germany.

Industrial Production y/y
2024-10-08 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-5.29%

The production index measures the monthly performance of the industry in Germany.

Current Account
2024-10-08 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-1.20 B EUR

It measures economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world, for a specific time period.

Trade Balance
2024-10-08 08:45:00
Actual
Forecast
-5.5 B EUR
Previous
-5.9 B EUR

It measures the difference between imports and exports data in billions of EUR.

NFIB Small Business Index
2024-10-08 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
92.0
Previous
91.2

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components based on the answers of the NFIB members to questions related to: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expectations for the economy to improve, expectations for real sales to grow, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, whether it is a good time to expand, and earnings trend.

ECOFIN Meeting
2024-10-08 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Eurogroup Meeting
2024-10-08 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

The Eurogroup, the main forum for the management of the single currency area, is an informal body that brings together the finance ministers of countries whose currency is the euro.

Redbook Retail Sales
2024-10-08 14:55:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
5.3%

The LJR Redbook survey tracks 15 retail stores every week to determine the changes in sales.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
2024-10-08 16:10:00
Actual
Forecast
47.2
Previous
46.1

The Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism Index measures the mood of consumers in regard to economic conditions.

Fed's Bostic Speaks
2024-10-08 18:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

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