US Markets Rally Ahead of Presidential Election Results
1 month ago

US benchmark equity indexes experienced positive momentum on Tuesday as traders anticipated the outcome of the presidential election. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.4% to 18,439.2, while the S&P 500 increased by 1.2% to 5,782.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced, gaining 1% to reach 42,221.9.

All sectors marked gains, with consumer discretionary and industrials leading the charge. Voting across the nation saw Americans selecting the next president, with Democratic Party nominee and current US Vice President Kamala Harris vying against Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump. Wall Street analysts are keeping a close eye on pivotal swing states, as market fluctuations are expected until a definitive result emerges.

The timeline for clarity on the voting outcome could extend over several days, analysts indicated. "The US presidential election likely will be decided by a few thousand voters across a handful of swing states," stated Wells Fargo Investment Institute. In bond markets, the US two-year yield rose 2.1 basis points to 4.2%, whereas the 10-year rate experienced a decline of 1.8 basis points, landing at 4.29%. In economic updates, the US services sector showcased continued expansion in October, with data from the Institute for Supply Management revealing a sequential uptick in growth rates.

Conversely, S&P Global indicated minor deceleration in certain areas. "With measures of new orders and business activity still at healthy levels, the backbone of consumer spending is likely to remain a sturdy contributor to growth in the fourth quarter and into next year," asserted TD Economics. On Friday, data from ISM and S&P Global highlighted that the US manufacturing sector remained in contraction last month due to output weaknesses. The trade deficit widened in September, driven by rising goods imports while both goods and services exports experienced declines, according to newly released government data. "The election's outcome could potentially increase import risks if importers anticipate possible tariff hikes in a Trump presidency," noted Oxford Economics. In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed 0.9% to $72.11 a barrel. In company news, Palantir Technologies saw its shares soar nearly 24%, marking it as the best performer on the S&P 500.

The software firm reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, revising its annual outlook upward due to escalating demand for artificial intelligence solutions. On the Nasdaq, GlobalFoundries emerged as the top gainer on Tuesday, escalating by 15% following a significant third-quarter performance. Conversely, Celanese's shares plummeted 26%, making it the worst-performer on the S&P 500 after a disappointing third-quarter report released late Monday. NXP Semiconductors faced a decline of 5.2% on Tuesday, ranking among the steepest losers on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after reporting third-quarter results that fell short compared to the previous year, along with a weakened fourth-quarter outlook. Gold prices increased by 0.2%, trading at $2,752.50 per troy ounce, while silver gained 0.5% to reach $32.76 per ounce..

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Economic Calendar

Manufacturing PMI
2025-01-02 02:45:00
Actual
50.5
Forecast
51.6
Previous
51.5

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early indication of the economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector on a monthly basis.

Nationwide House Prices y/y
2025-01-02 08:00:00
Actual
4.7%
Forecast
3.8%
Previous
3.7%

Nationwide House Prices measure a change in value caused by inflation using a statistical method to construct an 'average house'.

Nationwide House Prices m/m
2025-01-02 08:00:00
Actual
0.7%
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
1.2%

Nationwide House Prices measure a change in value caused by inflation using a statistical method to construct an 'average house'.

Manufacturing PMI
2025-01-02 09:15:00
Actual
53.3
Forecast
53.6
Previous
53.1

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of carefully selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing sector.

Riksbank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
2025-01-02 09:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

It's a detailed record of the Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank) Policy Board's meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

Manufacturing PMI
2025-01-02 09:45:00
Actual
46.2
Forecast
44.9
Previous
44.5

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of carefully selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing sector.

M3 Money Supply y/y
2025-01-02 10:00:00
Actual
3.8%
Forecast
3.5%
Previous
3.4%

M3 is a “broad” monetary aggregate that comprises M2 plus repurchase agreements, money market fund shares and units as well as debt securities with a maturity of up to two years.

Final Manufacturing PMI
2025-01-02 10:00:00
Actual
45.1
Forecast
45.2
Previous
45.2

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of carefully selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing sector.

Private Loans y/y
2025-01-02 10:00:00
Actual
0.9%
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
0.8%

It measures the change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector.

Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2025-01-02 10:30:00
Actual
47.0
Forecast
47.3
Previous
48.0

Manufacturing CIPS (The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply): A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook.

MBA Mortgage Applications
2025-01-02 13:00:00
Actual
-12.6%
Forecast
Previous
-0.7%

The Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey contains 15 indices covering application activity for fixed rate, adjustable rate, conventional and government loans for home purchases and refinances.

Initial Jobless Claims
2025-01-02 14:30:00
Actual
211 000
Forecast
220 000
Previous
219 000

Initial Jobless Claims is a report issued by the U.

Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI
2025-01-02 15:45:00
Actual
49.4
Forecast
48.3
Previous
49.7 R (48.3)

Markit Flash U.

Crude Oil Inventories
2025-01-02 17:00:00
Actual
415.6 M Barrels
Forecast
Previous
421.0 M Barrels

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) provides timely information on supply and prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products in the context of historical data and forecasts.

Bank Holiday
2025-01-02 23:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Unemployment Change
2025-01-03 09:55:00
Actual
Forecast
15 000
Previous
7 000

According to the definition of ILO, as concretised by the EU, any person aged between 15 and 74 years is considered unemployed if he/she was not employed in that period, but actively sought work over the four weeks preceding the survey.

Unemployment Rate
2025-01-03 09:55:00
Actual
Forecast
6.2%
Previous
6.1%

The Federal Employment Agency, counts persons as job-seekers who are registered as unemployed with the employment agencies, are temporarily without a job or perform just a marginal part-time work (i.

M4 Money Supply m/m
2025-01-03 10:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.1%
Previous
-0.1%

The Broad money aggregate M4 measures the change in the cash outside banks (i.

Mortgage Approvals
2025-01-03 10:30:00
Actual
Forecast
69.00
Previous
68.30

Lending to individuals consists of sterling lending secured on dwellings (i.

ISM Manufacturing
2025-01-03 16:00:00
Actual
Forecast
48.3
Previous
48.4

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide.

Natural Gas Storage
2025-01-03 16:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3529 BCF

This report tracks U.

Fed's Barkin Speaks
2025-01-03 17:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous

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