A recent Bloomberg survey indicates that despite the upcoming US presidential election posing significant uncertainty, the robust rebound in the US stock market this year is likely to continue into the final phase of 2024. The median forecast from 411 respondents suggests that the S&P 500 index will approach 6,000 points by the end of the year, reflecting a 2.3% increase from last Friday's close, as the market continues to set new highs. Notably, three-quarters of the respondents anticipate that the current earnings season will significantly bolster the index, emphasizing that the strength of US corporate performance is viewed as more influential on stock market dynamics than the outcome of the November election or the policy direction of the Federal Reserve.
Current data reveals that approximately 70 companies within the S&P 500 index have already reported their earnings; an impressive 76% of these companies have exceeded expectations, showcasing the resilience and growth potential of the market. Looking ahead, respondents are optimistic that the technology giants scheduled to report later will once again take the lead in performance metrics.
Overall, 75% of those surveyed predict that the so-called 'Big Seven' companies will outperform or at least match the performance of the market’s other constituents in the upcoming quarter. This sentiment underscores the critical role that the earnings announcements from leading tech firms play in shaping investor outlook and market trajectories..