Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the United States unexpectedly experienced a decline, as reported by the government data released on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted number of initial claims decreased by 4,000, bringing the total to 218,000 for the week ending September 21. This figure marks the lowest count since the week ended May 18.
Analysts had anticipated a slight increase to a level of 223,000, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg. In addition, the previous week's reading was revised upwards by 3,000, now reported at 222,000. The four-week moving average stood at 224,750, which reflects a decrease of 3,500 from the prior average that had been revised upwards by 750.
Meanwhile, unadjusted claims showed a decline of 5,957 on a weekly basis, totaling 180,878. Grace Zwemmer, Associate US Economist at Oxford Economics, commented on the figures, stating, "Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in over four months, but we don't read much into one week's decline because seasonal factors may have played a role." She continued, "The Federal Reserve will likely lower rates another 50 basis points this year to preserve current labor market conditions, and one week's claims data doesn't alter that." In a related move, the Federal Reserve recently lowered its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points while making adjustments to its median federal funds rate outlooks for the years 2024 through 2026. For the week ending September 14, seasonally adjusted continuing claims totaled 1.83 million, aligning closely with the Bloomberg consensus.
Continuing claims increased by 13,000 compared to the previous week's average, which was revised down by 8,000. The four-week moving average for continuing claims came in at 1.84 million, a decline of 6,500 from the prior week's downwardly revised average, according to data from the Department of Labor. Zwemmer noted, "Continued jobless claims, which track initial claims with a lag, continue to trend lower, and we expect that will persist in the weeks ahead." Among the states, Texas experienced the highest increase in initial claims for the week ending September 14, totaling 2,216 claims, followed closely by New York with 1,842 and California with 1,108 claims.
The state with the largest decrease was Massachusetts, witnessing a decline of 1,969 claims, followed by decreases in Wisconsin and Connecticut..